Inflation and candidate choices drove Republicans to midterm defeat
A national poll indicates that voters blamed the president for rising costs and weak nominees, while criticizing Congress for failing to check executive power.
By Marco Whitaker ·
Voters punished Republican candidates in Tuesday's midterm elections because they blamed the president for high prices and perceived character flaws in his endorsed nominees, according to a new national poll. The Associated Press Voter Poll surveyed registered voters in all 50 states and found that economic concerns and dissatisfaction with party leadership were the primary drivers of the shift. Democrats gained seats in both chambers of Congress, but the data suggests the victory was driven more by frustration with the Republican side than by a surge in love for the Democratic Party.
Inflation was the central economic issue for voters. The poll found that about two-thirds of respondents nationwide said the president's policies made the economy worse. Among that group, about 8 in 10 voters chose the Democratic candidate in their local House race. In Texas, a state traditionally solid for Republicans, about 2 in 10 voters reported severe financial hardship from inflation. Approximately three-quarters of those voters supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. Another 6 in 10 Texas voters said inflation caused moderate hardship, and Talarico won the majority of that group as well.
The poll identified corruption as a major factor in voting decisions. More than half of voters nationally said government corruption was crucial to their choice. This concern outweighed the cost of living as a decisive factor, even though about 6 in 10 voters expressed personal worry about food and grocery costs. Many voters viewed the president as focused on personal gain, noting that he made more than $1 billion from meme coins and cryptocurrency last year. During his second term, he also solicited donations from companies to build a White House ballroom. About two-thirds of voters said the president does not have the right priorities, and the vast majority of those voters backed Democratic House candidates.
Republican candidates faced specific challenges due to their associations with the president. In South Carolina, Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, sought to fill his seat after his death in July. About 6 in 10 voters in that race said she lacked the necessary experience. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton ran against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn after receiving the president's endorsement. About two-thirds of voters in the Texas Senate race said Paxton lacked the character to serve. In North Carolina, about 6 in 10 voters said Senate nominee Michael Whatley was too supportive of the president. Voters in that state chose Democrat and former Gov. Roy Cooper instead.
The poll also reveals a lack of broad enthusiasm for the winning party. Only about half of voters held a favorable view of the Democratic Party. That figure was higher than the approximately 4 in 10 who viewed the Republican Party positively, but the gap was narrow. About 2 in 10 voters who chose Democratic candidates still had a negative view of the party overall. On issues such as the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes, and immigration, roughly 2 in 10 voters said neither party was better equipped to handle the matters. An even larger share said neither party would be better at addressing government corruption or artificial intelligence.
Congress faced criticism for its performance during the president's second term. For much of the past two years, the Republican-controlled legislature largely allowed the president to act independently. He implemented sweeping tariffs, launched a war with Iran, and remodeled the White House. About 7 in 10 voters said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances. This sentiment included about 4 in 10 Republican voters. The survey was conducted by SSRS for the Associated Press and other news organizations. It blended probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and October 22 to November 3 in all other states. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
