Polls Misread Netanyahu Strength by Wide Margin

Dr. Menachem Lazar, the CEO of Lazar Research and the pollster for Maariv, stated that every major poll in the recent Israeli election was wrong. He told Nissim Mishal and Anat Davidov on 103FM that the error was serious and universal among firms. The discrepancy involved the size of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition versus the opposition.

Lazar acknowledged that his firm gave the opposition a majority in its final data. That projection proved incorrect. The actual results showed the Netanyahu coalition held a majority. He said the firm saw a political picture that did not match the final outcome. He noted that while events occurred between his last poll on Thursday and the election day, that timing difference was not the primary cause of the error.

The pollster compared the current failure to the 2015 election cycle. In that year, Likud also saw a late surge that pollers missed. Lazar said the firm will conduct a full assessment once final results are confirmed. He emphasized that the team underestimated Netanyahu's strength and the bloc's overall power. The team needs one more day to review the data before finalizing its analysis.

Lazar explained the technical requirements for accurate exit polls. Firms must correctly distribute polling stations and examine how those sites were selected. They must also compare the nationwide demographic distribution with the specific polling station locations. Finally, they must check the gap between the exit poll ballot box and the actual ballot box located next to it. The exit poll box should mirror the real box, but Lazar suggested a fundamental problem may exist in either the site selection or voter behavior.

Addressing claims that the polls were manipulated, Lazar said the industry examines itself after every campaign. He noted that exact party-level matches are rare, but bloc-level accuracy is usually better. The 2015 discrepancy led to corrections in subsequent campaigns. His team plans to examine the data, correct its methods, and aim for better results in future rounds.

Double-envelope ballots remain uncounted and could shift the final seat distribution. Lazar assessed that the Arab parties may see a smaller share of the total vote. This shift could push the Reservists' Party and the Economic Party above the electoral threshold. Both parties are currently short by approximately 40,000 votes. The extra ballots might allow them to reach that number.

Alternatively, the additional votes could benefit the Jewish Home party and Naftali Bennett. Those candidates were short by 1,400 votes. Meretz, which was short by several thousand votes, could also cross the threshold. The Arab parties might lose one or two seats, causing movement between political blocs. Surplus-vote agreements will also factor into the final tally.

Lazar concluded that the overall election picture appears clear despite the counting delays. He stated that neither side won a decisive victory. The current debate centers on which side lost less. The next step is determining how to form a government with the resulting numbers or whether to hold new elections. Assessments of potential outcomes in a rerun are already underway.